Generalized Additive Models em Séries Temporais

Aqui no AlgoBeans provavelmente você verá a melhor explicação sobre modelos aditivos generalizados (Generalized Additive Models) da internet. De forma simples e didática, o post explica tudo sobre essa técnica.

Therefore, google search trends for persimmons could well be modeled by adding a seasonal trend to an increasing growth trend, in what’s called a generalized additive model (GAM).

The principle behind GAMs is similar to that of regression, except that instead of summing effects of individual predictors, GAMs are a sum of smooth functions. Functions allow us to model more complex patterns, and they can be averaged to obtain smoothed curves that are more generalizable.

Because GAMs are based on functions rather than variables, they are not restricted by the linearity assumption in regression that requires predictor and outcome variables to move in a straight line. Furthermore, unlike in neural networks, we can isolate and study effects of individual functions in a GAM on resulting predictions.